Blog Posts - Fx / Interest Rates



Markets irrational longer than you remain solvent, exhibit #274

There’s an article out on Seeking Alpha yesterday, called “Manufacturing Growth and Capital are Moving from China to Mexico“, nominally about the Mexico-China relationship to the US, but also more broadly (in my interpretation) about ho...
by Diverging Markets on Dec 18, 2013

Twas the Night Before Taper: A Wall Street Holiday Poem

After several months of silence, Mustafa Mond, whom we last heard from in April, has resurfaced. Today, Mr. Mond offers us this holiday poem: TWAS THE NIGHT BEFORE TAPER By Mustafa Mond Twas the night before Taper, when all through … Continue r...
by Diverging Markets on Dec 18, 2013

Twas the Night Before Taper: A Wall Street Holiday Poem

After several months of silence, Mustafa Mond, whom we last heard from in April, has resurfaced. Today, Mr. Mond offers us this holiday poem: TWAS THE NIGHT BEFORE TAPER By Mustafa Mond Twas the night before Taper, when all through … Continue r...
by Diverging Markets on Dec 18, 2013

Markets irrational longer than you remain solvent, exhibit #274

There’s an article out on Seeking Alpha yesterday, called “Manufacturing Growth and Capital are Moving from China to Mexico“, nominally about the Mexico-China relationship to the US, but also more broadly (in my interpretation) about ho...
by Diverging Markets on Dec 18, 2013

An Apples-to-Apples Comparison of African Sovereign Debt

I’ve been meaning to do this for months now, and the FT’s Jonathan Wheatley has just done it for me. Herewith, a side-by-side comparison of 10-year African sovereign debt issues from the past 15 months: Country Issue Date Tenor Size Yiel...
by Diverging Markets on Dec 17, 2013

An Apples-to-Apples Comparison of African Sovereign Debt

I’ve been meaning to do this for months now, and the FT’s Jonathan Wheatley has just done it for me. Herewith, a side-by-side comparison of 10-year African sovereign debt issues from the past 15 months: Country Issue Date Tenor Size Yiel...
by Diverging Markets on Dec 17, 2013

Irrational exuberance continues plaguing Bitcoin

Bank of America has now initiated coverage of bitcoin and puts a fair value price target at US$1,300, which depending on your view, either validates or discredits the digital currency. Personally, I have no skin in this game, I appreciate … Con...
by Diverging Markets on Dec 12, 2013

Irrational exuberance continues plaguing Bitcoin

Bank of America has now initiated coverage of bitcoin and puts a fair value price target at US$1,300, which depending on your view, either validates or discredits the digital currency. Personally, I have no skin in this game, I appreciate … Con...
by Diverging Markets on Dec 12, 2013

Ignorance continues hindering serious discussion about Bitcoin

Bank of America has now initiated coverage of bitcoin and puts a fair value price target at US$1,300, which depending on your view, either validates or discredits the digital currency. Personally, I have no skin in this game, I appreciate … Con...
by Diverging Markets on Dec 12, 2013

Fed tapering, Emerging Markets, Banxico

Thanks to Brent Donnelly from Nomura for this chart showing USDMXN vs 10-year US Treasuries since “tapering” became a new market watchword: So what? Here’s so what: For anyone who ever thought Videgaray, Carstens or whoever else had...
by Diverging Markets on Sep 20, 2013

Fed tapering, Emerging Markets, Banxico

Thanks to Brent Donnelly from Nomura for this chart showing USDMXN vs 10-year US Treasuries since “tapering” became a new market watchword: So what? Here’s so what: For anyone who ever thought Videgaray, Carstens or whoever else had...
by Diverging Markets on Sep 20, 2013

Chart of the Day : Triple Threat for Emerging Markets

Apologies to everyone for the radio silence, but I’ve been occupied with an ongoing project in Peru the past few months. In the meantime, Morgan Stanley just published this chart via Barron’s: Related PostsCharts of the Day: The Future Of...
by Diverging Markets on Aug 19, 2013

Chart of the Day : Triple Threat for Emerging Markets

Apologies to everyone for the radio silence, but I’ve been occupied with an ongoing project in Peru the past few months. In the meantime, Morgan Stanley just published this chart via Barron’s: Related PostsCharts of the Day: The Future Of...
by Diverging Markets on Aug 19, 2013

Street Markets 101: On Money Laundering, Foreign Exchange and Counterfeit US Dollars

I’ll begin with the spoiler for those of you who should have been somewhere else five minutes ago: The Mexican peso trades at a 50% discount on the streets of Peru and I believe this is somehow related to Peru … Continue reading →...
by Diverging Markets on May 21, 2013

A Tale Of Two Bond Curves: Malaysia vs Indonesia

Thanks to Denise Law for drawing my attention to this… Malaysia government bond yields fall post-elections: While Indonesia government bond yields rise after S&P reduced its outlook on Indonesian credit from positive to stable: Related read...
by Diverging Markets on May 9, 2013

How Much More Can Emerging Markets Debt Grow?

London-based Clear Path Analysis has an excellent report detailing investment considerations for Emerging Markets debt and FX investing. So good, actually, that it’s forcing me to second-guess my previously held view that Emerging Markets debt is i...
by Diverging Markets on Apr 28, 2013

Plain English: China’s Cash Stash

This little quip from the FT about China’s rising FX reserves made me stop in my tracks: “Reserves jumped $130bn to $3.44tn – roughly equivalent to the size of the German economy…” Really? Yes. Really. You can look it up … Continue re...
by Diverging Markets on Apr 11, 2013

What Central Bank FX Reserves Really Tell Us

The New York Fed has just published what is absolutely mandatory reading for anyone with a stake in the foreign exchange market. It’s a 10-page pdf entitled, “Do Industrialized Countries Hold the Right Foreign Exchange Reserves?” and is one of...
by Diverging Markets on Apr 4, 2013

Charts Of The Day: The Bitcoin-Argentina Connection

On increasing chatter I’ve been hearing about bitcoin, pending devaluation in Argentina and the possible use of bitcoin to circumvent capital controls in Argentina, I had to look at the data. Bitcoin, for those who aren’t aware, is a virtual R...
by Diverging Markets on Mar 27, 2013

Plain English: Some Thoughts On Bernanke’s LSE Speech

Bernanke gave a speech at the London School of Economics yesterday which is grabbing a lot of attention. Those who have heard or read some of his other non-Fed public lectures over the past few years will recognize that he … Continue reading &#...
by Diverging Markets on Mar 26, 2013


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