Blog Posts - The Fed



The Minority Expects Higher Interest Rates As Confidence Erodes

--->NewsAn omniscient Fed says expect low interest rates will likely (underscored because they'll need an out after interest rise unexpectedly) to be the norm for the next two to three years. The majority, a student taught from the drivel provided b...
by Eric De Groot's Insights on Oct 26, 2016

09/16/16 Economic Activity Composte

EACThe majority believes the Fed is the controller or maestro financial and economic world. While history shows us (over and over) that its not, the majority stands by this belief until failed expectations driven by the invisible hand inflicts losses...
by Eric De Groot's Insights on Sep 21, 2016

Caterpillar Tells Us World Economic Growth Subdued #EAC

NewsCaterpillar, a global supplier of construction and mining equipment, is a very good bellwether for global economic activity. Investors should listen when the CEO says "we’re having success managing through the downturn in industries like minin...
by Eric De Groot's Insights on Jul 26, 2016

All Markets Are Connected, The US Economy Cannot Be An Island of Strength Forever

---> NewsThe trouble with domestic only analysis is that it assumes that markets, the manifestation of the intentions of the invisible hand, are independent (isolated) rather than interconnected. The Brexit, for example, would have a close to zero o...
by Eric De Groot's Insights on Jul 19, 2016

#EAC Warns of Liquidation Ahead, While Headlines Are Slow to Catch ON

---> NewsThe majority believes the Fed control the business cycle, while a select minority, a follow of the message of the market, understands the invisible hand controls it. The Economic Activity Composite (EAC), a leading measure of economic activ...
by Eric De Groot's Insights on Jun 3, 2016

A Focus on China

[PRICE Links Video] Senior Analyst Phil Flynn focuses in on China: oil demand, equities vs economy, reaction to the Fed, gold demand, and more with Tim Muholland of TMJ Enterprises. Recorded 5/31/16 Past performance is not indicative of futures resu...
by PRICE | Market Insights on Jun 1, 2016

Pension Funds Bigger Gambles For Lower Returns Will Drive Their Insolvency

---> NewsThe Fed will be forced to raise rates because pension funds and insurance companies are becoming increasingly insolvent in a low rate environment. Pension funds bigger gambles - forays in real estate, junk bonds, and riskier sovereign debt...
by Eric De Groot's Insights on May 31, 2016

#TheFed As The Maestro, An Illusion To Be Broken In Coming Crisis

--->NewsThe Fed, a follower of market forces like everyone else (sorry true believers), will raise rates because the invisible hand will drive them higher for decades. The majority which includes politicians believes the Fed controls markets, the eco...
by Eric De Groot's Insights on May 25, 2016

The Fed Will Raise Rates, Its Only A Matter of Time and Pressure

--->NewsThe Fed is trapped in the classic damned if you do, damned if you don't, paradox. The Fed, following market forces rather than the other way around, needs to raise rates to relieve the growing strain of iliquidity in pensions and insurance c...
by Eric De Groot's Insights on May 23, 2016

Retail Stocks Warning of Future Economic Weakness #MinimumWage

--->NewsTarget Corp, one of America's largest retailers reported that consumers pulled back on their spending in the first quarter. It's share price tumbled on the news. While retail stocks have been warning of future economic weakness since Octob...
by Eric De Groot's Insights on May 19, 2016

What Will The Fed Do When The Economic Uptick Ends?

--->NewsWhat happens when economic uptick ends? Will the Fed continue the much needed normalization of rates, or will they yield to political pressure as the majority panics? These questions will likely be answered within a year. History predicts...
by Eric De Groot's Insights on May 19, 2016

04/27/16 #Review of US Economic Activity Composite and #Liftoff Policy #EAC

EACThe Economic Activity Composite (EAC) (chart 1 and 2), a leading measure of economic activity within the United States and economic timing tool, signals a business cycle (BC) transition ahead. Liquidation and crisis, the corrective phase of the B...
by Eric De Groot's Insights on Apr 27, 2016

The Fed's Postponement of Liftoff Suggests Loosening of Domestic Policy Objectives

--->NewsThe Fed, whom until recently had convinced the public that the US economy was strong enough to withstand rate hikes, is now worried that global economy (and financial system) too weak to handle US rates hikes and a stronger dollar.  The...
by Eric De Groot's Insights on Mar 17, 2016

Majority Incorrectly Believes The Fed Controls Markets

--->NewsThe majority believes the Fed rather than invisible hand drives markets and trends. While the Fed, unlike many of the widely-followed 'gurus' that seem to sing the same tune (market interpretation) regardless of ever changing market conditio...
by Eric De Groot's Insights on Mar 13, 2016

Negative Interest Rate Policies (NIRP) Are Dangerous Experiments #NIRP

--->NewsAgreed. Zero interest rate policies (ZIRP) has failed to to kick start economic growth in Japan, Europe and the United States for decades. The notion that negative interest rates, ZIRP on steroids, will produce a more favorable outcome as t...
by Eric De Groot's Insights on Feb 19, 2016

The #Fed Cautious But Upbeat Stance Confuses Investors

--->NewsThe Fed's cautious enough not to raise interest rates again but remained upbeat view of the U.S. economy, though. Stocks, lead by the technology sector (Nasdaq 100), are seeing right through the double talk. Click the tag S&P 500 for fur...
by Eric De Groot's Insights on Jan 27, 2016

Finger of Blame Will Be Pointed At The Fed

--->NewsThe Fed, created to provide liquidity during a crisis, was originally limited to the stimulus of the private sector through the purchase of short-term commercial paper (CP). This expanded the money supply and provided liquidity during the il...
by Eric De Groot's Insights on Jan 25, 2016

Yellen Continues To Call For Gradual Rate Hikes

--->NewsHints - speeches, minutes, and comments directly from Yellen suggests that a policy of gradual rate hikes in sympathy with market forces crushing US pension funds and savers will likely be adopted at the December meeting. FedWatch (Located in...
by Eric De Groot's Insights on Nov 24, 2015

China Got USA by the Balls, Obama Bows to China

(CNSNews.com) - In data released Thursday afternoon, the Federal Reserve revealed that its holdings of U.S. government debt had increased to an all-time record of $1,696,691,000,000 as of the close of business on Wednesday.The Fed's holdings of U.S.

How False Economic Signals Confuse Investors

Employment Numbers are Still Difficult U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: U.S. Unemployment rises slightly to 7.9 Percent in October, U.S. total non-farm payroll employment increased by 171,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was essentially unch...
by Cymor Strategic Growth Funds on Nov 30, 2012


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